With the US midterm elections only weeks away, the headlines are getting louder. Politics can dominate attention and tempt investors to act on emotion rather than evidence.
At Atlas Financial Group, we help clients look past the noise to the forces that shape long-term returns. This month, we are watching inflation, interest rates and the durability of the AI investment boom more closely than the political drama.
The elections: noise, not direction
As of 16 October, prediction markets favour the Democrats to take the House and show the Senate as a real possibility. These are snapshots of sentiment, not forecasts to build a portfolio around. Elections can bring short-term volatility, but the outcome alone does not determine long-term returns. Economic fundamentals, corporate earnings and interest rates matter more over time.
Political outcomes are hard to predict, and their market effects are harder still to time. We do not think reacting to every shift in election odds is a sound investment strategy.
Inflation: still present, but shifting in character
Inflation remains a concern. In the latest US consumer price report, a sharp rise in gasoline accounted for more than half of September’s monthly increase. At the same time, prices excluding food and energy also rose. Energy is a major source of the latest pressure, but it is not the whole story.
That mix keeps central banks cautious and the path of interest rates uncertain. For investors, it reinforces the case for portfolios designed to withstand several inflation outcomes rather than depend on one precise forecast.
AI: the engine beneath the surface
Away from the election campaign, investment in artificial intelligence continues to support activity in data centres, power infrastructure, equipment and software. It is a meaningful driver of business investment, even as borrowing costs remain a challenge.
The opportunity also brings concentration risk. When a large share of market strength rests on one theme, diversification matters more. There are signs of broader market participation beyond the largest US technology shares, but we would not rely on that trend continuing in a straight line.
What this means for you
A month like this can create a strong urge to act — on the election, the latest inflation figure or the newest AI headline.
Our advice is to stay anchored to a plan built for uncertainty: diversified across assets, currencies and regions, and aligned with your own goals. That is how we build for clients — around resilience rather than predictions.
As always, if this brief raises a question about your own plan, we are here to talk.
Olaf Schroder, Chartered MCSI
Managing Director, Atlas Financial Group
Market observations are as of 16 October 2026. This article provides general information and is not personal investment advice. Investments can fall as well as rise in value.
Sources: Kalshi midterm markets, viewed 16 October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, September 2026 CPI; US Federal Reserve, July 2026 AI buildout note; S&P Dow Jones Indices, US SPIVA mid-year 2026.